Source: The
Malaysian Insider
The art of prediction is such
that one can only really predict things after they have happened. So goes a
wise saying by the French-Romanian playwright Eugene Ionesco. Be that as it
may, nothing will stop Malaysians from engaging in our favourite pastime —
trying to predict the timing of the 13th general election.
For more than a year now, we have
all been living in constant anticipation of an election that has been
perpetually “around the corner.” It has even come to the point where no
politician in this country is able to get through a single day without someone
asking, “So when will the elections be?” Some have even fallen into the habit
of continually predicting one to be just three months away, a cycle that has
been renewed five times in the last 15 months.
I too am unable to escape this
quintessential question that is thrown at me time and again. In tandem with the
progression of current affairs, my answers have also undergone constant
evolvement.
However, whenever I am asked when
should the general election be held, I have held one constant response for more
than a year: that it should have been held last year, in concurrence with the Sarawak state election.
In fact, I had been so convinced
that the elections were going to be held together that it was a real surprise —
and a pleasant one if I were to be honest — when the prime minister decided not
to hold it simultaneously.
In my opinion, Najib Razak missed
a great opportunity to deal a striking blow following a tumultuous year-end in
2010 for Pakatan Rakyat, especially with the coalition reeling in the aftermath
of Keadilan’s infamous party elections and the departure of Zaid Ibrahim, then
still commanding a modicum of respect.
In any case, there is no use
speculating on what could have been. Looking to the future, the prime minister
knows that his options are limited. The window from now until automatic
dissolution on April 29, 2013 is getting smaller by the minute. And so, based
on a confluence of factors that I will elaborate upon, I am now almost certain
that we can realistically expect a June 2012 date for the next general
election.
Presumably, one would also want
to take advantage of the economic painkillers injected by the government in the
form of the BR1M scheme, the recently announced EPF dividend of a decade-high
six per cent and of course the expected windfall for FELDA settlers from the
listing of FELDA Global Ventures Holdings due in May.
In the coming months, we can also
expect the announcement of a slew of mega-projects encompassing five regions
(northern, eastern, southern, Sabah and Sarawak )
as a result of the five “corridors and cities” labs conducted by PEMANDU at the
end of last year.
Secondly, logistical reasons make
the second half of 2012 an unappealing option. Beginning with the fasting month
of Ramadan starting in mid-July, followed by a month-long Raya period from
August to September, and then the Haj season which culminates at the end of
October, the Deepavali festival right after that and finally the monsoon period
crippling half the country by then, it would be a logistical nightmare to slot
in a month of electioneering.
The only time a general election
has been called during the year-end period was in 1999 as the then-prime
minister needed desperately to avert the gazetting of 650,000 new voters
registered during the height of the Reformasi era. This situation does not
exist today.
Thirdly, on the evening of
September 15, 2011, the prime minister made a promise on “live” television to
carry out sweeping reforms including the lifting of multiple emergency
ordinances, reviews to the Police Act, the abolishment of the Internal Security
Act (ISA), and the amendment of other laws such as the Printing Presses and
Publications Act (PPPA).
In addition, he also subsequently
announced the formation of a Parliamentary Select Committee (PSC) on electoral
reform as well as the amendment of the Universities and University Colleges Act
(UUCA).
While some of the promised
reforms have been delivered, half-baked as they were, the key reforms such as
the ISA repeal and amendments to the PPPA and UUCA have yet to be tabled. In
addition, the PSC’s recommendations on electoral reform will only be presented
to Parliament in early April. This makes the next parliamentary sitting
starting March 12, 2012 a crucial one.
One might then argue that
dissolution could occur immediately after the reforms are passed by the Dewan
Rakyat. This is a fallacy, because any Bill passed by the Lower House must also
be ratified by the Senate before it can be sent for royal assent. Now, the
Senate is due to sit from April 21 to May 10, and so unless the prime minister
isn’t serious about delivering on a promise made to millions of Malaysians on
the eve of Malaysia Day, a dissolution before the full ratification process is
complete is out of the picture.
Lastly, and perhaps more
importantly, it must not be forgotten that besides the 13th general election,
Umno is also due for an election that many, especially within the party, would
argue is even more critical than the former. After all, the president of Umno
has hitherto always been the prime minister of the country.
Having already been postponed for
18 months, the Umno party election is due within months of the end of this
parliamentary term. Hence, holding the general election later than June would
interfere with the elaborate, divisive and drawn-out affair of an Umno election
that typically consumes every level of the behemothic party from branch to
division to the general assembly itself.
The Umno election is at least a
four- to five-month affair involving massive internal politicking and the
dispensation of enormous resources. The only way to postpone it is to amend the
constitution via an emergency general assembly, and any attempt to do so would
be greatly resisted by vested interests within the party.
As every division head and
supreme council member runs the risk of losing their party positions, and hence
their candidacies as well as the power to control and disburse funds from the
election war chest, it would only be natural for them to push for a general
election first.
It was the same scenario in the
months preceding March 2008, when the then-prime minister was unable to
convince his party to hold their own elections before the general election.
There is nothing to suggest that the current prime minister would be able to balk
this trend.
Thus, an election held later than
June would mean the prospect of two resource-intensive elections back-to-back;
unlikely to be a pretty sight and definitely not what the prime minister wants.
Having considered all the points
above, I am therefore reasonably certain that we are in for a mid-year
pre-Ramadan election. In any case, if I am proved to be wrong, I will simply
revert to the three-month cycle routine. After all, even the prime minister
himself said recently that if one made enough guesses, one is bound to be
correct.
* The views expressed here are
the personal opinion of the columnist.
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